Round 11 sub attempt
48 of 86
Sig.
strikes
strikes
12 of 40
1 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:30
Control
0:00
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
1
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 48Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 12Clinch 0Ground 0
VSSettled
Blue corner
NateLandwehr“The Train”MMA Masters · Born in Clarksville, Tennessee, United States · Fights out of Clarksville, Tennessee, United States
The story going in
- Lands 2.7 more significant strikes a minute than Landwehr.
- Has dropped 3 straight in the UFC.
- Has finished 3 of 5 UFC wins.
15-4
Record
18-9
−1 yr37
Age
38
+3″6' 0"
Height
5' 9"
+3″75″
Reach
72″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
1
UFC bouts
+1011
Tristar Gym
Gym
MMA Masters
Vancouver, British Columbiahometown, per Sherdog
From
Clarksville, Tennessee, United Statesfights out of
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Mandel Nallo
76.9% confidentHIGH
The fight
Mandel Nallo
WIN✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
2 rounds of tape
Round 2⚡ 1 KD NalloEnded 0:47
10 of 14
Sig.
strikes
strikes
1 of 7
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:02
Control
0:00
1
Knock-
downs
downs
0
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 8Clinch 0Ground 2
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 1Clinch 0Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Mandel Nallo
Round
2
Clock
0:47
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Luke Boutin.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Mandel Nallo
0.00 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.73 / 15m
n/a
ATTEMPTS
1.78 / 15m
n/a
ACCURACY
41%
0.00 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.70 / 15m
100%
TD DEFENCE
71%
Nate Landwehr
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.56 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked roster-wide
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Mandel NalloNate LandwehrPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Mandel Nallo's implied chance moved up from 71% to 72% (+1.5pp).
Our published call had Mandel Nallo at 76.9%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 72.5% — our number sat 4.4pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandel Nallo — sportsbook consensus | 68.9% | 68.9% | 71.4% | 71.4% | +2.5pp |
| Nate Landwehr — sportsbook consensus | 31.1% | 28.6% | 31.1% | 28.6% | −2.5pp |
| Mandel Nallo — Polymarket | 71.0% | 71.0% | 72.5% | 72.5% | +1.5pp |
| Nate Landwehr — Polymarket | 29.0% | 27.5% | 29.0% | 27.5% | −1.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,106 snapshots on file · window Oct 10 06:11–Oct 17 23:51Z · last capture Oct 17, 23:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.