Round 1⚡ 1 KD BarriaultEnded 4:28
5 of 11
Sig.
strikes
strikes
32 of 46
1 of 3
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
3:15
Control
0:28
0
Knock-
downs
downs
1
Distance 4Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 2Clinch 2Ground 28
Red corner
KyleDaukausMartinez BJJ · Born in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States · Fights out of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States
VSSettled
The story going in
- Has finished 3 of 4 UFC wins.
- Has dropped 2 straight in the UFC.
- Averages 1.6 more takedowns per 15 minutes than Barriault.
- Has finished 4 of 6 UFC wins.
17-6
Record
18-11
−3 yr33
Age
36
+1″6' 2"
Height
6' 1"
+2″76″
Reach
74″
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
10
UFC bouts
+717
+8%3/475% of wins
Finishes
4/667% of wins
Martinez BJJ
Gym
Kill Cliff FC
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States
Born in
Gatineau, Quebec, Canada
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Kyle Daukaus
73.7% confidentHIGH
The fight
Marc-Andre Barriault
LOSS✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
Finishers
Both fighters finish: at least two thirds of their UFC wins ended inside the distance. When two finishers meet, 64% of UFC fights end inside the distance (354 of 550 fights). Across every UFC fight it is 53%.
Age
Daukaus is 3 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,252 of 2,209 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
1 round of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Marc-Andre Barriault
Round
1
Clock
4:28
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Marc Goddard.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Kyle Daukaus
1.97 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.34 / 15m
7.88 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
1.21 / 15m
25%
ACCURACY
28%
2.00 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.10 / 15m
79%
TD DEFENCE
68%
Marc-Andre Barriault
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.86 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Middleweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Kyle DaukausMarc-Andre BarriaultPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted away from our pick: Kyle Daukaus's implied chance moved down from 67% to 64% (−3.5pp).
Our published call had Kyle Daukaus at 73.7%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 63.5% — our number sat 10.2pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Daukaus — sportsbook consensus | 66.4% | 63.2% | 66.8% | 63.6% | −2.7pp |
| Marc-Andre Barriault — sportsbook consensus | 33.6% | 33.2% | 36.8% | 36.4% | +2.7pp |
| Kyle Daukaus — Polymarket | 67.0% | 63.5% | 68.5% | 63.5% | −3.5pp |
| Marc-Andre Barriault — Polymarket | 33.0% | 31.5% | 36.5% | 36.5% | +3.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,106 snapshots on file · window Oct 10 06:11–Oct 17 23:51Z · last capture Oct 17, 23:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.