9:44
median time
Featherweight · 3 rounds · UFC 333 (UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev) · 24 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Losene Keita over Aaron Pico at 52% confidence — a coin-flip.
That read sits 2.8pp above the sportsbook line's implied 49% on Losene Keita.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 45% (KO/TKO 45%, submission 16%, decision 39%) — but all three outcomes stay live.
The model gives it a 39% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 9:44.
Live on Polymarket, Losene Keita is priced around 48%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 20 Oct 2026, 01:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: TOSS-UP picks are 42-43 (49.4%, n=85) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Losene Keita's implied chance drifted down from 54% to 48% (−5.0pp) over this window.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Pico — sportsbook consensus | 47.4% | 47.4% | 50.7% | 50.6% | +3.2pp |
| Losene Keita — sportsbook consensus | 52.6% | 49.3% | 52.6% | 49.4% | −3.2pp |
| Aaron Pico — Polymarket | 46.5% | 46.5% | 52.5% | 51.5% | +5.0pp |
| Losene Keita — Polymarket | 53.5% | 47.5% | 53.5% | 48.5% | −5.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita.
| UFC 1-1 | UFC record | UFC 1-1 |
| 14-5 | Pro record | 17-2 |
| 5' 8" | Height | 5' 9" |
| 70" | Reach | 72" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 30 | Age | 28 |
| 145 lbs. | Weight | 145 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Belgium |
| Whittier, California, United States | Born in | Conakry, Guinea |
| Whittier, California, United States | Fights out of | Kortrijk, West Flanders, Belgium |
| Jackson-Wink MMA | Camp | Lamiro Fight Club |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Aaron Pico2 UFC fights · 113 landed
Limited sampleLosene Keita2 UFC fights · 70 landed
Limited sampleSignificant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Aaron Pico
Losene Keita
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.09 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Aaron Pico (left) vs Losene Keita (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 8" orthodox wrestler campaigning at Featherweight. 1 UFC win — 1 decision.
5' 9" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Featherweight. 1 UFC win — 1 KO/TKO.