11:07
median time
Middleweight · 3 rounds · UFC 333 (UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev) · 24 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Abubakar Vagaev over Jacob Malkoun at 57% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 4.3pp below the sportsbook line's implied 61% on Abubakar Vagaev.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 48% (KO/TKO 35%, submission 17%, decision 48%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 48% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 11:07.
Live on Polymarket, Abubakar Vagaev is priced around 62%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 20 Oct 2026, 11:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: LOW picks are 56-27 (67.5%, n=83) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Malkoun is 2 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,252 of 2,212 fights).
Malkoun comes in on a 3-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 3 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 56% of the time (435 of 773 fights).
History leans Malkoun on 2 of these; our model still picks Vagaev.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted away from our pick: Abubakar Vagaev's implied chance moved down from 64% to 62% (−3.0pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abubakar Vagaev — sportsbook consensus | 61.6% | 60.2% | 63.7% | 60.8% | −0.9pp |
| Jacob Malkoun — sportsbook consensus | 38.4% | 36.3% | 39.8% | 39.2% | +0.9pp |
| Abubakar Vagaev — Polymarket | 64.5% | 57.5% | 73.5% | 61.5% | −3.0pp |
| Jacob Malkoun — Polymarket | 35.5% | 26.5% | 42.5% | 38.5% | +3.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun.
| UFC 1-0 | UFC record | UFC 6-3 |
| 25-4 | Pro record | 10-3 |
| — | Nickname | Mamba |
| 5' 11" | Height | 5' 9" |
| 73" | Reach | 73" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 33 | Age | 31 |
| 170 lbs. | Weight | 185 lbs. |
| Russia | Nationality | Australia |
| — | Born in | Sydney, Australia |
| — | Fights out of | Sydney, New South Wales, Australia |
| Grozny, Chechnya | Hometown (per Sherdog) | — |
| Fight Club Akhmat | Camp | PMA Super Martial Arts |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Abubakar Vagaev1 UFC fights · 27 landed
Limited sampleJacob Malkoun9 UFC fights · 424 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Abubakar Vagaev
Jacob Malkoun
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.56 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Abubakar Vagaev (left) vs Jacob Malkoun (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 11" orthodox wrestler campaigning at Welterweight. 1 UFC win — 1 decision.
5' 9" orthodox wrestle-grinder campaigning at Middleweight. 6 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 5 decision.