9:47
median time
Bantamweight · 3 rounds · UFC 333 (UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev) · 24 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Asaf Chopurov over Colby Thicknesse at 81% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 0.0pp above the sportsbook line's implied 81% on Asaf Chopurov.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 49% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 22%, decision 49%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 49% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 9:47.
Live on Polymarket, Asaf Chopurov is priced around 82%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 20 Oct 2026, 11:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Chopurov’s UFC debut, against a fighter with 3 UFC fights. Debutants facing an opponent with 1 to 3 UFC fights win 42% of the time (414 of 979 fights).
Chopurov is 2 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,252 of 2,212 fights).
History leans Thicknesse on 1 of these; our model still picks Chopurov.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Asaf Chopurov's implied chance moved up from 76% to 81% (+5.5pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asaf Chopurov — Polymarket | 75.5% | 72.5% | 81.0% | 81.0% | +5.5pp |
| Colby Thicknesse — Polymarket | 24.5% | 19.0% | 27.5% | 19.0% | −5.5pp |
The facts, side by side — Asaf Chopurov vs Colby Thicknesse.
| — | UFC record | UFC 2-1 |
| 11-0 | Pro record | 9-1 |
| — | Nickname | Slickness |
| — | Height | 5' 7" |
| — | Reach | 69" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 24 | Age | 27 |
| 135 lbs. | Weight | 135 lbs. |
| Azerbaijan | Nationality | Australia |
| — | Born in | Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia |
| — | Fights out of | Windang, New South Wales, Australia |
| Sambo 34 | Camp | Freestyle Fighting Gym |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
The level change — how often it lands, how often it is stopped. Career UFC rates, straight off the tape.
Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Asaf Chopurov (left) vs Colby Thicknesse (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
-- orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Bantamweight.
5' 7" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Bantamweight. 2 UFC wins — 2 decision.