11:03
median time
Flyweight · 3 rounds · UFC 333 (UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev) · 24 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Lone'er Kavanagh over Ramazan Temirov at 55% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 5.7pp above the sportsbook line's implied 50% on Lone'er Kavanagh.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 48% (KO/TKO 37%, submission 15%, decision 48%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 48% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 11:03.
Live on Polymarket, Lone'er Kavanagh is priced around 50%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 20 Oct 2026, 11:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: LOW picks are 56-27 (67.5%, n=83) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Kavanagh is 2 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,252 of 2,212 fights).
Temirov comes in on a 3-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 3 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 56% of the time (435 of 773 fights).
History leans Temirov on 1 of these; our model still picks Kavanagh.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted away from our pick: Lone'er Kavanagh's implied chance moved down from 50% to 50% (−1.0pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone'er Kavanagh — sportsbook consensus | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | 50.0% | −0.0pp |
| Ramazan Temirov — sportsbook consensus | 50.0% | 49.4% | 50.0% | 50.0% | −0.0pp |
| Lone'er Kavanagh — Polymarket | 50.5% | 49.5% | 51.5% | 49.5% | −1.0pp |
| Ramazan Temirov — Polymarket | 49.5% | 48.5% | 50.5% | 50.5% | +1.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov.
| UFC 3-2 | UFC record | UFC 3-0 |
| 10-2 | Pro record | 20-3 |
| — | Nickname | Temurlan |
| 5' 6" | Height | 5' 4" |
| 67" | Reach | 63" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 27 | Age | 29 |
| 125 lbs. | Weight | 125 lbs. |
| England | Nationality | — |
| London, England | Born in | — |
| London, England | Fights out of | — |
| Great Britain Top Team | Camp | — |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Lone'er Kavanagh5 UFC fights · 321 landed
Ramazan Temirov3 UFC fights · 105 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Lone'er Kavanagh
Ramazan Temirov
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.00 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Lone'er Kavanagh (left) vs Ramazan Temirov (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 6" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Flyweight. 3 UFC wins — 3 decision.
5' 4" orthodox technical striker campaigning at Flyweight. 3 UFC wins — 2 KO/TKO, 1 decision.