21:03
median time
Bantamweight · 5 rounds · UFC 333 (UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev) · 24 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Petr Yan over Merab Dvalishvili at 60% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 1.0pp below the sportsbook line's implied 61% on Petr Yan.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 64% (KO/TKO 23%, submission 13%, decision 64%) — a clear separation.
The model gives it a 64% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 21:03.
Live on Polymarket, Petr Yan is priced around 62%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 20 Oct 2026, 03:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: MED picks are 93-27 (77.5%, n=120) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
A rematch: Yan beat Dvalishvili in their last meeting (December 2025, on the scorecards). In UFC rematches, the winner of the last meeting wins again 60% of the time (116 of 194 fights).
Both fighters go the distance: at least two thirds of their UFC wins came on the scorecards. When two decision winners meet, 31% of UFC fights end inside the distance (73 of 238 fights). Across every UFC fight it is 53%.
Yan comes in on a 4-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 4 or 5 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 58% of the time (368 of 640 fights).
Yan is 2 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,252 of 2,212 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted away from our pick: Petr Yan's implied chance moved down from 62% to 62% (−1.0pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili — sportsbook consensus | 37.8% | 37.6% | 38.9% | 38.6% | +0.8pp |
| Petr Yan — sportsbook consensus | 62.2% | 61.1% | 62.4% | 61.4% | −0.8pp |
| Merab Dvalishvili — Polymarket | 37.5% | 37.5% | 41.5% | 38.5% | +1.0pp |
| Petr Yan — Polymarket | 62.5% | 58.5% | 62.5% | 61.5% | −1.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan.
| UFC 14-3 | UFC record | UFC 12-4 |
| 21-5 | Pro record | 20-5 |
| The Machine | Nickname | No Mercy |
| 5' 6" | Height | 5' 7" |
| 68" | Reach | 67" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Switch |
| 35 | Age | 33 |
| 135 lbs. | Weight | 135 lbs. |
| Georgia | Nationality | Russia |
| Vani, Georgian SSR, Soviet Union | Born in | Dudinka, Russia |
| Long Island, New York, United States | Fights out of | Yekaterinburg, Russia |
| Serra-Longo Fight Team | Camp | Archangel Michael Club |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Merab Dvalishvili17 UFC fights · 1,322 landed
Petr Yan16 UFC fights · 1,456 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Merab Dvalishvili
Petr Yan
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Merab Dvalishvili (left) vs Petr Yan (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 6" orthodox wrestle-grinder campaigning at Bantamweight. 14 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 12 decision.
5' 7" switch technical striker campaigning at Bantamweight. 12 UFC wins — 4 KO/TKO, 8 decision.