7:01
median time
Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds · UFC 333 (UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev) · 24 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev over Nikita Krylov at 85% confidence — a lock.
That read sits 6.6pp above the sportsbook line's implied 79% on Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 46% (KO/TKO 46%, submission 32%, decision 21%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 21% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 7:01.
Live on Polymarket, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev is priced around 80%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 19 Oct 2026, 05:09 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: LOCK picks are 29-9 (76.3%, n=38) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Yakhyaev is 8 years younger. With an age gap of 8 to 9 years, the younger fighter wins 65% of UFC fights (415 of 636 fights).
Both fighters finish: at least two thirds of their UFC wins ended inside the distance. When two finishers meet, 64% of UFC fights end inside the distance (356 of 552 fights). Across every UFC fight it is 53%.
Yakhyaev comes in on a 3-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 3 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 56% of the time (435 of 773 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Since the open, the market has drifted toward our pick: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev's implied chance moved up from 80% to 80% (+1.0pp).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov — sportsbook consensus | 22.0% | 21.4% | 22.0% | 21.4% | −0.7pp |
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev — sportsbook consensus | 78.0% | 78.0% | 78.6% | 78.6% | +0.7pp |
| Nikita Krylov — Polymarket | 20.5% | 19.5% | 22.0% | 19.5% | −1.0pp |
| Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev — Polymarket | 79.5% | 78.0% | 80.5% | 80.5% | +1.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev.
| UFC 12-10 | UFC record | UFC 3-0 |
| 31-12 | Pro record | 10-0 |
| The Miner | Nickname | — |
| 6' 3" | Height | 6' 2" |
| 77" | Reach | 78" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 34 | Age | 25 |
| 205 lbs. | Weight | 205 lbs. |
| Ukraine | Nationality | Turkey |
| Krasnyi Luch, Luhansk, Ukraine | Born in | — |
| Kislovodsk, Russia | Fights out of | — |
| Raty Team | Camp | Nuremberg MMA |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Nikita Krylov22 UFC fights · 689 landed
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev3 UFC fights · 19 landed
Limited sampleSignificant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Nikita Krylov
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.25 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Nikita Krylov (left) vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 3" orthodox submission grappler campaigning at Light Heavyweight. 12 UFC wins — 5 KO/TKO, 5 submission, 2 decision.
6' 2" orthodox wrestler campaigning at Light Heavyweight. 3 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 2 submission.