20:34
median time
Featherweight · 5 rounds · UFC 333 (UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev) · 24 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Movsar Evloev over Alexander Volkanovski at 63% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 12.4pp above the sportsbook line's implied 50% on Movsar Evloev.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 59% (KO/TKO 28%, submission 13%, decision 59%) — a clear separation.
The model gives it a 59% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 20:34.
Live on Polymarket, Movsar Evloev is priced around 50%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 20 Oct 2026, 03:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: MED picks are 93-27 (77.5%, n=120) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
A title fight. Volkanovski has been in 11 UFC title fights before; Evloev has not. The fighter with title-fight experience wins 65% of these (136 of 209 fights).
Both fighters go the distance: at least two thirds of their UFC wins came on the scorecards. When two decision winners meet, 31% of UFC fights end inside the distance (73 of 238 fights). Across every UFC fight it is 53%.
Evloev comes in on a 10-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 6 or more against an opponent on a shorter one wins 64% of the time (206 of 321 fights).
Evloev is 5 years younger. With an age gap of 4 to 5 years, the younger fighter wins 56% of UFC fights (929 of 1,653 fights).
History leans Volkanovski on 1 of these; our model still picks Evloev.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
The price on Movsar Evloev has barely moved across this window — 50% at the open, 50% now (a 0.0pp shift).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski — sportsbook consensus | 49.4% | 49.4% | 50.6% | 50.0% | +0.6pp |
| Movsar Evloev — sportsbook consensus | 50.6% | 49.4% | 50.6% | 50.0% | −0.6pp |
| Alexander Volkanovski — Polymarket | 49.5% | 49.0% | 49.5% | 49.5% | −0.0pp |
| Movsar Evloev — Polymarket | 50.5% | 50.5% | 51.0% | 50.5% | −0.0pp |
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| DEC YES | 59% | 64% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 59% | 64% |
The facts, side by side — Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev.
| UFC 15-3 | UFC record | UFC 10-0 |
| 28-4 | Pro record | 20-0 |
| The Great | Nickname | — |
| 5' 6" | Height | 5' 7" |
| 71" | Reach | 72" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 38 | Age | 32 |
| 145 lbs. | Weight | 145 lbs. |
| Australia | Nationality | Russia |
| Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia | Born in | Ordzhonikidzvskaya, Ingushetia, Russia, (now Sunzha, Ingushetia, Russia) |
| Windang, New South Wales, Australia | Fights out of | Sunzha, Ingushetia, Russia |
| — | Camp | American Top Team |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Alexander Volkanovski18 UFC fights · 1,815 landed
Movsar Evloev10 UFC fights · 625 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Alexander Volkanovski
Movsar Evloev
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.09 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Alexander Volkanovski (left) vs Movsar Evloev (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 6" orthodox volume striker campaigning at Featherweight. 15 UFC wins — 5 KO/TKO, 10 decision.
5' 7" orthodox wrestle-grinder campaigning at Featherweight. 10 UFC wins — 10 decision.