11:29
median time
Heavyweight · 3 rounds · UFC 333 (UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev) · 24 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Alexander Volkov over Rizvan Kuniev at 55% confidence — a coin-flip.
That read sits 3.2pp above the sportsbook line's implied 51% on Alexander Volkov.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 52% (KO/TKO 40%, submission 8%, decision 52%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 52% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 11:29.
Live on Polymarket, Alexander Volkov is priced around 54%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 20 Oct 2026, 11:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: TOSS-UP picks are 42-43 (49.4%, n=85) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Kuniev is 3 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,252 of 2,212 fights).
History leans Kuniev on 1 of these; our model still picks Volkov.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Alexander Volkov's implied chance drifted down from 56% to 54% (−3.0pp) over this window.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov — sportsbook consensus | 54.9% | 51.0% | 54.9% | 51.3% | −3.6pp |
| Rizvan Kuniev — sportsbook consensus | 45.1% | 45.1% | 49.0% | 48.7% | +3.6pp |
| Alexander Volkov — Polymarket | 56.5% | 50.5% | 58.0% | 53.5% | −3.0pp |
| Rizvan Kuniev — Polymarket | 43.5% | 42.0% | 49.5% | 46.5% | +3.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev.
| UFC 14-5 | UFC record | UFC 2-1 |
| 40-11 | Pro record | 14-3-1 |
| Drago | Nickname | — |
| 6' 7" | Height | 6' 4" |
| 80" | Reach | 76" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 37 | Age | 34 |
| 250 lbs. | Weight | 240 lbs. |
| Russia | Nationality | Russia |
| Moscow, Russian SFSR, Soviet Union | Born in | Dagestan, Russia |
| Moscow, Russia | Fights out of | Makhachkala, Russia |
| Strela Team | Camp | Gorets Fight Club |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Alexander Volkov19 UFC fights · 1,250 landed
Rizvan Kuniev3 UFC fights · 154 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Alexander Volkov
Rizvan Kuniev
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.29 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Alexander Volkov (left) vs Rizvan Kuniev (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 7" orthodox knockout puncher campaigning at Heavyweight. 14 UFC wins — 6 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 7 decision.
6' 4" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Heavyweight. 2 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 1 decision.