9:33
median time
Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds · UFC 333 (UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev) · 24 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Azamat Murzakanov over Dominick Reyes at 63% confidence — a lean.
That read sits 2.1pp below the sportsbook line's implied 65% on Azamat Murzakanov.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 59% (KO/TKO 59%, submission 8%, decision 32%) — a clear separation.
The model gives it a 32% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 9:33.
Live on Polymarket, Azamat Murzakanov is priced around 66%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 20 Oct 2026, 03:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: MED picks are 93-27 (77.5%, n=120) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Both fighters finish: at least two thirds of their UFC wins ended inside the distance. When two finishers meet, 64% of UFC fights end inside the distance (356 of 552 fights). Across every UFC fight it is 53%.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
The price on Azamat Murzakanov has barely moved across this window — 66% at the open, 66% now (a 0.0pp shift).
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azamat Murzakanov — sportsbook consensus | 65.6% | 65.1% | 67.5% | 65.1% | −0.5pp |
| Dominick Reyes — sportsbook consensus | 34.4% | 32.5% | 34.9% | 34.9% | +0.5pp |
| Azamat Murzakanov — Polymarket | 65.5% | 64.0% | 68.0% | 65.5% | −0.0pp |
| Dominick Reyes — Polymarket | 34.5% | 32.0% | 36.0% | 34.5% | −0.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes.
| UFC 6-1 | UFC record | UFC 10-5 |
| 16-1 | Pro record | 16-5 |
| The Professional | Nickname | The Devastator |
| 5' 10" | Height | 6' 4" |
| 71" | Reach | 77" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Southpaw |
| 37 | Age | 36 |
| 205 lbs. | Weight | 205 lbs. |
| Russia | Nationality | — |
| Kyzburun III, Kabardino-Balkarian ASSR, Russian SFSR, Soviet Union, (now Dygulybgey, Kabardino-Balkaria, Russia) | Born in | Hesperia, California, United States |
| Fairfield, New Jersey, United States | Fights out of | Victorville, California, United States |
| K Dojo Warrior Tribe | Camp | — |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Azamat Murzakanov7 UFC fights · 283 landed
Dominick Reyes15 UFC fights · 588 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Azamat Murzakanov
Dominick Reyes
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.25 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Azamat Murzakanov (left) vs Dominick Reyes (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 10" southpaw power striker campaigning at Light Heavyweight. 6 UFC wins — 5 KO/TKO, 1 decision.
6' 4" southpaw power striker campaigning at Light Heavyweight. 10 UFC wins — 6 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decision.