9:42
median time
Middleweight · 3 rounds · UFC 333 (UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev) · 24 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Cam Rowston over Abus Magomedov at 51% confidence — a coin-flip.
That read sits 2.7pp above the sportsbook line's implied 48% on Cam Rowston.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 42% (KO/TKO 42%, submission 23%, decision 35%) — but all three outcomes stay live.
The model gives it a 35% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 9:42.
Live on Polymarket, Cam Rowston is priced around 48%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 20 Oct 2026, 11:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: TOSS-UP picks are 42-43 (49.4%, n=85) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Rowston comes in on a 3-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 3 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 56% of the time (435 of 773 fights).
Rowston is 4 years younger. With an age gap of 4 to 5 years, the younger fighter wins 56% of UFC fights (929 of 1,653 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Cam Rowston's implied chance drifted down from 52% to 48% (−4.0pp) over this window.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abus Magomedov — sportsbook consensus | 51.6% | 47.2% | 52.2% | 52.2% | +0.6pp |
| Cam Rowston — sportsbook consensus | 48.4% | 47.8% | 52.8% | 47.8% | −0.6pp |
| Abus Magomedov — Polymarket | 48.5% | 48.5% | 53.0% | 52.5% | +4.0pp |
| Cam Rowston — Polymarket | 51.5% | 47.0% | 51.5% | 47.5% | −4.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston.
| UFC 5-3 | UFC record | UFC 3-0 |
| 29-7-1 | Pro record | 15-3 |
| 6' 2" | Height | 6' 3" |
| 78" | Reach | 78" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 36 | Age | 31 |
| 185 lbs. | Weight | 185 lbs. |
| Russia | Nationality | — |
| Argun | Hometown (per Sherdog) | — |
| UFD Gym | Camp | — |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Abus Magomedov8 UFC fights · 239 landed
Cam Rowston3 UFC fights · 148 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Abus Magomedov
Cam Rowston
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.86 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Abus Magomedov (left) vs Cam Rowston (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 2" orthodox grappling-led all-rounder campaigning at Middleweight. 5 UFC wins — 1 KO/TKO, 2 submission, 2 decision.
6' 3" orthodox technical striker campaigning at Middleweight. 3 UFC wins — 2 KO/TKO, 1 decision.